Is China ready for 20GW in 2015?

The National Energy Administration (NEA) set a truly ambitious target of 17.8GW in mid-March, which itself, if successful, would translate into a 70% increase year on year from 2014’s 10.6 GW; 20GW would push that figure even higher to almost 100% year on year. Indeed, quarterly installations, Q1 witnessed 5.04GW which itself is more than all Q1 from 2012 through 2014 combined, as well a relatively strong Q2 with estimated 2-3GW according to official NEA figures. Simple mathematics suggests China is just shy of 12-13GW to be deployed between July and December, which would be more than the entire installations in 2013 as well 2014. Against this background, according to AECEA’s market data, in the past years, demand in the third and fourth quarters was always strongest, although not close to the anticipated 12-13GW.